Superforecasting: The Art and science of Prediction Audible – Unabridged ridged
Author: Philip Tetlock ID: B0131HGPQQ
From one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people – including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer – who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters”. In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future – whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life – and is destined to become a modern classic.
Done.
Audible Audio EditionListening Length: 9 hours and 31 minutesProgram Type: AudiobookVersion: UnabridgedPublisher: Audible StudiosAudible.com Release Date: September 29, 2015Language: EnglishID: B0131HGPQQ Best Sellers Rank: #3 in Books > business & Money > Management & Leadership > Planning & Forecasting #6 in Books > Audible Audiobooks > Nonfiction > Social Science #6 in Books > medical books > psychology > Cognitive
In the 1990s Philip Tetlock gathered together hundreds of experts and "ordinary" – albeit extremely well-read – people and asked them to try to predict global questions of significance: What will happen to the stock market in the next one year? What will be the fate of Tunisia in two years? What kind of impact of middle eastern politics on oil prices are we going to see in the next six months?
He continued the contest for several years and came up with a shocking answer: the ordinary people who read the daily news and thought about it with depth and nuance were at least as good as self-proclaimed and well-known experts from the financial sector, from government and from intelligence agencies. These results of the so-called ‘Good Judgement Project’ were widely publicized by the media under the "there are no experts" drumroll, but as Fetlock and his co-author Gardner indicate in this book, what the media failed to report was the presence of a handful of people who were even better than the experts, albeit by modest amounts. Tetlock called these people ‘superforecasters’, and this is their story.
The crux of the book is to demonstrate the qualities that these superforecasters have and try to teach them to us. The narrative is packed with very interesting problems of forecasting like figuring out if the man in a mysterious compound in Pakistan was Osama Bin Laden or whether Yasser Arafat had been poisoned by Israel. In each case Tetlock takes us through the thought processes of his superforecasters, many of who have held non-forecasting related day jobs including plumbing, office work and construction.
Everyone wants to be able to predict the future, whether they are buying stocks, choosing a mate, or deciding how the next presidential election will go, but what, if anything, can we do to improve our ability to predict? Wharton School professor Philip Tetlock has been studying that question since the Reagan era and has observed forecasters from pundits and intelligence analysts to filmmakers and pipe fitters to try to learn why some people are better at making predictions than others. In this book, he describes his work and that of others and presents some techniques that may help all of us make better decisions.
As someone who enjoys reading about topics like decision-making, forecasting, and behavioral economics, I too often find myself reluctantly concluding, “That was well-presented, but there is nothing here I have not heard before.” For a reader new to the subject, it is good that Superforecasting delves into the ideas of people like psychologist Daniel Kahneman, whose description of the biases in judgment that impede our ability to make good decisions and forecasts earned him a Nobel Prize in Economics, and Tetlock appropriately covers topics like these.
I was pleased, though, he also presented some interesting work I was not familiar with, such as the author’s own Expert Political Judgment project to study whether some people really are better predictors than others and, if so, how they differ from the less successful experts, and the Good Judgment Project that was part of an effort to improve intelligence estimating techniques funded by IARPA (the intelligence community’s equivalent of DARPA). I was also especially amused by a contest run in 1997 by the Financial Times at the suggestion of behavioral economist Richard Thaler.
First, some info on the authors, from the back of the book: Philip Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author or Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Dan Gardner is a journalist and the author of Risk and Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best.
Since isn’t the offering a look inside the book, at least at the time of this review, here’s the contents:
CH 1: An Optimistic Skeptic – The One About the Chimp; The Skeptic; The Optimist; A Forecast About Forecasting
CH 2: Illusions of Knowledge – Blind Men Arguing; Putting Medicine to the Test; Thinking About Thinking; Bait and Switch; Blinking and Thinking
CH 3: Keeping Score – “A Holocaust…Will Occur”; Judging Judgments; The Meaning of the Math; Expert Political Judgment; And The Results…; Dragonfly Eye
CH 4: Superforcasters – Resisting Gravity – But For How Long?
CH 5: Supersmart? – Fermi-ize; A Murder Mystery; Outside First; The Inside View; Thesis, Antithesis, Synthesis; Dragonfly Forecasting
CH 6: Superquants? – Where’s Obama?; The Third Setting; Probability For The Stone Age; Probability For The Information Age; Uncertain Supers; But What Does It All Mean?
CH 7: Supernewsjunkies? – The Over-Under; Under: Over; Captain Minto
CH 8: Perpetual Beta – Consistently Inconsistent; Try; Fail; Analyze and Adjust; Grit; Putting It All Together
CH 9: Superteams – To Team Or Not To Team?
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